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Members' Report 1/2002: Basic Scenarios for the Consumption of the Future

This report presents a number of scenarios for examination of the European consumer of the future. These scenarios are imagined, possible images of future settings that can be used for inspiration in the process of determining strategy, product development and other types of company decisions.

By Anders BjerreNiels Bøttger-RasmussenSøren Jensen and Klaus Æ. Mogensen

The report consists of scenarios for the development of society and consumption in three different terms. Scenarios that can be used in several different ways:

Scenarios for the short, operational term - towards 2004
These examine the uncertain situation regarding economy and security as a whole as well as the implications for consumption. These scenarios are tools with which to examine more specific executive decisions: Should we invest and expand, or should we delay this and prepare for continued stagnation or even recession in the year to come? But the scenarios can also be used to discuss consumer behaviour and market changes such as that the market for ‘stories' of size ‘small' grows in times of stagnation and are replaced by a growth of ‘stories' of size ‘large' when a boom sets in.
Customer scenarios for the intermediate, tactical/strategic term - towards 2008
These reflect five selected behavioural dimensions regarding which there is considerable uncertainty about whether the behaviour of customers and consumers will move in one direction or the other. By combining these five different uncertain behavioural dimensions in pairs, we get a large number of future visions (ten sets of four future visions) that can be developed into customer scenarios. These customer scenarios can be considered as tools partly for developing the products of companies and organisations, partly for identifying possible directions in which the profile of a company or organisation can be developed to be in harmony with the market.
Scenarios for the long, strategic/philosophical term - towards 2012
These scenarios are a tool for discussing and considering the strategic profile and identity of a company or organisation in the light of different possible developments in the overall global societal framework in the long term.

The main focus is on the intermediate, tactical/strategic term with descriptions and guidelines for sing scenarios as a concrete tool. There is a short, direct instructor's manual for running a workshop where you work directly with the many scenarios that are presented for the intermediate term. As a supplement to this report there is a PowerPoint presentation designed for running such a workshop, with short descriptions of 40 possible scenarios.

Download a PDF of the report here.

Download the PowerPoint presentation.

Acrobat Reader can be downloaded here.

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27. maj 2002

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